By Eneojo Herbert Idakwo
ABUJA—The once-moribund cotton fields of northern Nigeria tell a story of fits and starts, of bold agricultural interventions and disappointing reversals. Here, among the struggling small holder farms, lies the legacy of Nigeria’s Anchor Borrowers’ Programme—a tale of spectacular gains followed by an equally spectacular collapse.
In the 2019/2020 season, national cotton production surged to 120,000 metric tons, up from 80,000 just a year earlier. The number of active cotton farmers exploded from 67,000 to 143,221 between 2018 and 2020. Then, the program stalled. By the 2024/2025 season, production had crashed to just 15,000 metric tons—a fraction of its potential .
“The cotton sector over the last two years has not fared well,” said Anibe Achimugu, president of the National Cotton Association of Nigeria (NACOTAN), in an interview. “We’ve been declining from our upward trajectory to reaching our lowest levels after the cessation of any form of intervention or support” .
The story of Nigerian cotton represents a microcosm of the country’s broader agricultural challenges—and its potential. As the Tinubu administration pushes toward its $1 trillion economic vision, the cotton, textile and garment sector stands as both cautionary tale and opportunity. The recent approval of a private sector-led Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board signals a potential strategic pivot, but the path forward requires learning from the failures of the past .
Program Mechanics: How NACOTAN Became the Critical ‘Anchor’
At its peak, the ABP represented a textbook approach to agricultural value chain development. Launched in 2015 by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the program created formal linkages between smallholder farmers and established agricultural processors .
NACOTAN emerged as the vital intermediary in this ecosystem. Under Achimugu’s leadership, the association transformed from what he describes as a “near comatose” organization into a functional umbrella body representing cotton farmers nationwide .
The model was straightforward but powerful: NACOTAN registered farmers into cooperatives, facilitated input distribution—providing seeds, fertilizers, and chemicals—and guaranteed 100% off-take of produced seed cotton at minimum prices. For the first time in years, farmers received the recommended inputs and services needed to successfully cultivate cotton, along with extension support and assured markets .
“For the first time in a very long time, farmers got the recommended inputs and services needed to successfully cultivate one hectare, assured 100% off-take of their produced seed cotton and a minimum guaranteed price,” Achimugu explained .
The Production Surge: Quantifying ABP’s Impact
The program’s impact was both immediate and substantial. Between 2018 and 2020, Nigeria’s cotton sector experienced what analysts describe as a “quiet revolution,” with active farmer participation more than doubling from 67,000 to over 143,000 growers. This surge in human capital translated directly into production gains, with national output jumping from 80,000 metric tons to 136,000 metric tons during the same period—a 70 percent increase that signaled the program’s initial success.
Perhaps most notably, farmer productivity underwent a dramatic transformation. Where pre-ABP yields languished at just 500-600 kilograms per hectare, the combination of quality inputs and technical support pushed yields to between 1.5 and 2.0 tons per hectare—a threefold improvement that demonstrated the potential of modern agricultural practices. This productivity surge sparked renewed confidence across the value chain, with the number of operational ginneries expanding from just 7 to 26 facilities, representing a 271 percent increase in processing capacity.
The Collapse and Underlying Challenges
Yet this renaissance proved short-lived. When government support ceased after the 2020/2021 season, the fragile ecosystem collapsed. Production plummeted from 136,000 metric tons to less than 27,000 in the 2022/2023 season, before hitting 15,000 metric tons in 2024/2025—roughly one-tenth of the peak ABP output .
The ABP’s cessation exposed deeper structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s cotton sector. Interviews with farmers and ginners reveal multiple “killer issues” that continue to constrain production:
Security Crisis: “I recently travelled from Funtua to Zamfara, but believe me; I couldn’t find a single cotton farm. It has now all turned to soybeans,” said Ibrahim Mu’azu Isah, Head of Human Resources and Public Relations at Funtua Textiles. In many farming areas, bandits have stopped people from planting anything, creating severe disincentives for cotton cultivation .
Seed Quality Degradation: “Most of the major seeds have been contaminated, so it doesn’t germinate properly,” Isah added. “We need seed revival.” The search results indicate that Nigeria lacks the systematic seed development and distribution programs that competitors like Egypt enjoy, where 9 distinct types of cotton seedlings are maintained for different regions .
Infrastructure Deficits: Ginning companies face insufficient power supply, making operations costly and unpredictable. Meanwhile, smuggling of textile products continues to undermine local markets, creating unfair competition from imported goods .
Samuel Oloruntoba, acting managing director of Cotton Ginning Company Limited in Kaduna, summarized the situation: “It is very pathetic. Actually, cotton production is no longer there… The seeds we have today are not good enough – the yield is bad and that has made farmers to stop producing cotton” .
The New Strategy: Private Sector-Led Development
In response to these challenges, a new approach is emerging. The recent approval of a Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board by the National Economic Council represents a fundamental shift in strategy. Critically, the board will be private sector-driven, addressing what Achimugu identifies as a key failure of previous interventions .
“Stakeholders strongly believe that interventions so far in the sector have been done the ‘public sector way’, and it’s now time to do it the ‘private sector way’,” Achimugu stated. “We sincerely appreciate all the efforts of the federal government in the past, but it’s time to do it a different way, and that’s our way, putting our destiny in our hands to revive our investments in the sector” .
This model aligns with successful approaches in countries like Bangladesh, which achieves over $40 billion annually from its textile and garment sector. These countries typically have dedicated boards, councils, or even ministries coordinating their cotton, textile, and garment sectors .
NACOTAN’s policy recommendations now focus on creating an enabling environment for private investment:
· Implementation of Executive Order 003, which prioritizes patronage of local content in procurement
· Concessionary duties and tariff regimes to reduce production costs
· Low-cost financing windows specifically tailored to the sector’s needs
· Effective anti-smuggling initiatives to protect local markets
Broader Economic Context and Opportunities
Nigeria’s cotton struggles occur against a backdrop of significant potential. The country has approximately 650,000 hectares of available land suitable for cotton farming, but only one-third is currently being utilized. In the 1980s, the sector employed about 750,000 workers and contributed 25% to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, compared to minimal contributions today .
The potential economic impact of revival is substantial. Current investments in the sector are “well above the N1 trillion mark,” according to NACOTAN estimates. A functioning cotton, textile, and garment sector could generate massive employment, drive industrialisation, and contribute significantly to food security through crop rotation systems .
International partnerships are forming to support the sector’s modernization. NACOTAN is establishing a memorandum of understanding with Mali on cotton farming best practices and considering training opportunities offered by the Indian High Commissioner. A proposed bilateral agreement between Nigeria and India would allow both countries to pay for trade goods in their respective currencies, reducing forex pressures .
Value Chain Integration as Growth Catalyst
Industry leaders emphasize that sustainable revival requires thinking beyond cotton production alone. The entire value chain—from ginning to textile manufacturing to garment production—must develop synchronously.
“You cannot sustainably revive the textile industries by importing the bedrock raw material, especially when you have the internal capacity to produce more than enough quantities,” Achimugu argued. He advocates for a comprehensive value chain approach rather than debating whether cotton production or textile manufacturing should come first .
This integrated perspective suggests multiple pressure points for intervention:
· Ginning Capacity: Reactivating the estimated 52 ginneries that once operated across Nigeria
· Textile Manufacturing: Restoring the more than 180 textile mills that have shrunk to just “about two composite textile mills operational at a very low capacity utilization”
· Market Creation: Leveraging procurement from military and paramilitary forces for uniforms and other textile needs
Path Forward: Building Resilience Beyond Boom-Bust Cycles
As Nigeria’s cotton sector stands at a crossroads, the lessons from the ABP experiment offer clear guidance for future policy. The dramatic production surge and subsequent collapse demonstrate that short-term interventions, however well-designed, cannot sustain sectoral transformation.
NACOTAN has called for the revival of the Anchor Borrowers Programme but with crucial modifications. “The sudden stoppage of the ABP after just two years created problems of continuity,” the association noted in a recent communique. “There is need to fine-tune the programme to run for at least five years in order that the full impact of the programme can be seen” .
The association has also committed to pursuing recoveries of loans given to farmers through the ABP, recognizing that financial discipline is essential for program sustainability .
For the Tinubu administration, the cotton sector represents both challenge and opportunity. As Achimugu noted, the administration has “shown its recognition of the sector as being a significant contributor to its $1 trillion economy, job and wealth creation” .
The newly approved Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board, with its private sector orientation, offers a chance to break from the cycles of intervention and abandonment that have characterized Nigeria’s cotton sector for decades. If successful, it could provide a blueprint for agricultural revival beyond cotton alone.
“In literal and practical terms, the way forward is the inauguration of the recently approved Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board,” Achimugu stated. “This will be the game changer that brightens the light at the end of the tunnel that I see” .
